The first gas-powered buses hit New York City in 1905. Subways, rail, and trolleys followed. A century later, these are still the backbone of urban transit. The world has changed, but transit hasn’t—and cities are suffocating because of it.

Mass transit was a brilliant solution—for another era. It was built when cities were smaller, workplaces were centralized, and people moved in predictable patterns. Buses and trains were designed for scale, not flexibility—a model that made sense when cars were rare and transit agencies could dictate how people moved.

But today? None of those assumptions hold up. Work is flexible. Commerce is on demand. People expect transit to work around them, not the other way around. The world evolved. Mass transit didn’t. And now it’s collapsing under its own weight.

Public transportation ridership in the U.S. peaked at 10.8 billion trips in 2014 but declined to 10 billion by 2019—before the pandemic (Congressional Research Service). Even before COVID-19, people were abandoning transit, proving that this isn’t just a temporary downturn—it’s a system-wide failure.

Buses, subways, and rail weren’t designed to adapt. That’s the problem.

Fixed infrastructure can’t adjust to shifting population centers or demand spikes. A subway line built to serve factories in the 1950s is useless when those jobs move to another part of the city. A bus route planned a decade ago is already outdated as new housing and businesses emerge elsewhere. Cities evolve, but transit systems don’t.

Rigid scheduling means transit runs on set routes, whether people need them or not. High costs force buses and trains to require massive subsidies just to stay operational. Poor user experience leads to long waits, slow service, and inefficient routes that drive people away.

Cities have spent decades trying to tweak mass transit—investing in incremental improvements like mobile apps or electric buses. But you can’t fix a system that was never designed for modern urban life.

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Because they don’t know what else to do.

Mass transit is the default answer—governments have been conditioned to believe buses and rail are the only solutions. No city leader wants to take a risk, so they keep throwing money at what feels safe—despite worsening results.

Stuck in the past, cities keep doubling down on the familiar. It’s not just inertia—it’s fear. The risk of trying something new feels greater than the guaranteed failure of the status quo. As a result, leaders cling to what’s politically palatable, even if it no longer serves the public. But the illusion of safety quickly falls apart when confronted with reality.

Eminent domain halts expansion—building new transit corridors often requires seizing land, tearing down businesses, and displacing communities—a political nightmare that kills most projects before they start.

Modernization efforts stall before they start—even when cities try to fix transit, the cost of expansion is too high, both financially and socially.

Major transit projects often require significant capital investments, with some rail expansions costing billions and taking decades to complete (Congressional Research Service). Cities are committing to systems that are already outdated before they even break ground.

Billions are spent each year to keep 100-year-old systems on life support, while new projects collapse under legal fights and political gridlock.

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Cities know mass transit isn’t working, but they keep investing in it because they don’t see an alternative. They’re trapped between outdated, inflexible systems and a future they don’t yet understand.

Cities assume the problem with transit is a lack of investment. If we just build more rail, add more buses, or switch to electric, things will get better.

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They won’t.

Electrifying buses won’t solve inefficiency. A bus is still a bus, whether it runs on diesel or electricity. It still operates on a fixed schedule, whether people need it or not.

Expanding rail won’t make transit flexible. Trains can’t adjust in real-time to population shifts or changes in demand.

Adding a mobile app won’t change the core inefficiency. Scheduling and payment systems may improve, but the underlying model is still broken.

Many transit agencies are now caught in a financial death spiral—fewer riders lead to higher costs, which forces them to seek more subsidies just to stay afloat (World Resources Institute). The model isn’t just outdated. It’s unsustainable.

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Instead of “How do we improve mass transit?”, they should be asking:
“If 20th-century transit no longer works, how will cities move people in the 21st century?”

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