Public transit is failing. The evidence is everywhere—declining ridership, mounting financial losses, and aging infrastructure that cities can’t afford to maintain, let alone expand. But as mass transit systems crumble, cities are desperate for alternatives.

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The problem is, they’re turning to the wrong ones.

Ride-share, robotaxis, microtransit—these have all been presented as the future of mobility. Tech companies and city leaders have poured billions into them, convinced they will fill the gaps that buses, trains, and subways can’t.

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But these so-called “modern” solutions are failing, too. They aren’t fixing transit. They’re making it worse.

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Uber and Lyft were supposed to reduce congestion by getting people to share rides and leave their cars at home. Instead, they’ve done the opposite.

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A 2019 study found that ride-share services increased traffic congestion in major U.S. cities by up to 13% (Schaller Consulting). Why? Because most ride-share passengers weren’t switching from driving their own cars—they were switching from walking, biking, or using public transit.
Instead of reducing car dependency, ride-share has made cities even more car-reliant.

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And then there’s the pricing trap.

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Ride-share apps use dynamic pricing, which means what looks like an affordable trip can double or triple in cost when demand is high. During peak hours, surge pricing makes ride-share just as expensive—if not more—than driving yourself.
For a mobility solution to work at scale, it has to be reliable and predictable. Ride-share is neither.

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Self-driving taxis are supposed to be the future. Companies like Waymo have spent billions developing autonomous ride-hailing services. But years into testing, robotaxis are struggling with the same problems as their human-driven predecessors—and creating new ones.

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They make congestion worse. Since robotaxis don’t park, they often circle city streets while waiting for new riders, clogging roads and taking up space without moving people. ‍

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They aren’t reliable. While robotaxi companies have spent billions perfecting autonomous navigation, they still struggle in the real-world conditions that human drivers handle every day.

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Stories of robotaxis malfunctioning are common—vehicles freezing in intersections, stopping in the middle of the road, or failing to recognize emergency vehicles. In August 2023, a Waymo robotaxi blocked an intersection and created a traffic backup that delayed emergency response vehicles, leading to major concerns about their real-world effectiveness (The Verge).

Bad weather—rain, snow, fog—can cause them to freeze in place, become confused by wet or icy roads, or fail to detect pedestrians and cyclists. In cities that rely on ride-hailing as a backup to mass transit, this is a critical failure. People need reliable transportation most during bad weather, when transit is delayed, roads are congested, and personal vehicles are harder to use. But robotaxis often shut down in these exact conditions, leaving riders stranded when they need mobility the most. In San Francisco, where Waymo operates one of the largest autonomous taxi fleets, these vehicles have already struggled with unexpected road conditions. During heavy fog, Waymo cars have been reported stopping unexpectedly or refusing to continue their routes, causing backups and frustrating riders. For all their futuristic appeal, robotaxis aren’t solving the transportation trap. If they can’t function in the conditions that demand transit the most, they aren’t a viable mobility solution, just expensive, AI-driven traffic.

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The explosion of shared scooters and e-bikes promised to make urban transportation more accessible and flexible. Instead, it’s created a logistical nightmare.

Scooters and bikes are unreliable. They pile up on sidewalks, creating accessibility hazards. They run out of battery. They get vandalized. And worst of all, they only serve a small percentage of trips. If someone needs to travel more than a couple of miles, these aren’t real solutions.

A transportation solution can’t just be convenient—it has to be efficient, too. Microtransit fails to move enough people at scale to make a meaningful impact.

The cities that turned to ride-share, robotaxis, and microtransit thought they were escaping the transportation trap. In reality, they just traded one set of problems for another. Instead of being stuck between outdated, inflexible mass transit and a growing car problem, they’re now stuck between new alternatives that create more congestion, cost too much, and don’t scale. Or, they’re stuck between both.